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Dan
It is my opinion that the polls will sway back toward Bush, but not significantly.
Rick
I think that the polls will continue to show Kerry gaining, and it will be impossible to tell for sure whether it is due to people obtaining more true information about Kerry or the VP debate, which was definitely won by Edwards. Not a knockout as with Kerry vs. Bush, but definitely a win by Edwards.

However, the win by Edwards definitely won't hurt the Kerry-Edwards standing in the polls!
Dan
so far, the polls aren't showing a clear winner. My impression of Edwards was as a trial lawyer who convinces juries by sheer volume of cliches and lawyerspeak. My impression of Cheney was as the real 'president' behind Bush. One interesting attitude of Edwards was that he chided Cheney for 'telling the American people how to think about Kerry' but then going on numerous times to explicitly tell the American people how to think about Bush and Cheney. If this were a contest of competence, it seems that Edwards' main competence is in delivering a barrage of hot-button topics with the intent of overwhelming the possibility that the charges can be answered in the allotted time, while Cheney's main competence is in projecting operational knowledge of foreign policy that goes deeper than sound-bites and cliche.
Rick
QUOTE (Dan @ Oct 06, 11:17 AM)
... it seems that Edwards' main competence is in delivering a barrage of hot-button topics with the intent of overwhelming the possibility that the charges can be answered in the allotted time, while Cheney's main competence is in projecting operational knowledge of foreign policy that goes deeper than sound-bites and cliche.

It seems like the Democrat has stolen a page from the Republican play-book. It's about time they wised up.

So exactly how is it that diverting 200 billion in resources toward Iraq, while alienating our allies, projects operational knowledge of foreign policy?
Dan
QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 06, 11:34 AM)

So exactly how is it that diverting 200 billion in resources toward Iraq, while alienating our allies, projects operational knowledge of foreign policy?

Edwards should have stuck with a few main points like this until he got answers, instead he flew all over the place leveling all the charges as fast as possible without actually staying long enough to force real answers or obvious stalling to any of them. I would definitely have liked to hear in-depth explanations on stuff like this, but Edwards didn't play the game that way.

Cheney's projections of knowledge came across in the few explanations he did give, and I expect that he could give many more real answers about touchy topics if he weren't also concerned with the 'spin' issue and keeping up with Edwards' whirwind tour of topics
Rick
The debate this Friday should be interesting. Bush will do better than he did last Thursday, I predict, first because of desperation, but secondly, because even he should be able to learn from experience. However, I hope Kerry improves as well. Then we will really have a horse race for the Presidency.
Dan
we already have a horse race. the stakes of the next debate are for Kerry to tip the election strongly enough in his direction such that Bush cannot regain the ground (as he gained it up to the debates) by election time. If Bush wins the next two debates, Kerry will lose. Bush's main advantage is the slow chipping at Kerry by t.v. ads by Swift Boat Vets, FOX news, etc..., while Kerry's main advantage is that he can clearly demonstrate in the one-on-one competetion (debates) that he is not mentally 'challenged' like Bush often appears to be (and, more recently, that he can appear 'tough').
Rick
Yep, that's the way I see it too. However, the "advantage" of chipping away at Kerry may have lost its effectiveness as people may be wising up: they don't like being fooled twice.
Dan
I don't know if the 'chipping' will have lost its ability to be effective, it will just have to redevelop momentum. Recency effect is important
Rick
I certainly see the likelihood of a steady increase in deceptive TV adds by the Republicans and their sympathizers.
Dan
The key for Kerry after the debates is to really continue to project himself as tough, consistent and dependable. The swing voters are defining the race, and they want to feel that Kerry is really going to effectively fight the Islamic nuts instead of paying lipservice while undermining the possibility of a successful long-term strategy. The Repubs are going to try their damnedest to show that Kerry is not the tough, consistent or dependable guy as he recently projected himself to be in the debate, and will suggest that such a commander in chief will lead in the wrong direction in this 'terror' war implying disaster far more important than any $200 billion war cost, 1.2 million job loss or 'likeable' world image. Economy will be an important factor as an 'over the top' kind of thing, assuming that Kerry can maintain the previously mentioned image.
Dan
O'Reilly says Kerry will be on The Factor. That ought to be quite interesting.
Rick
Interesting, indeed, but I doubt Kerry would submit himself to such abuse. It's probably another O'Lie-ly lie. See Al Franken's Lies and the Lying Liars who Tell Them.

Did you see the Dr. Phil Show yesterday (Oct. 6)? The whole hour was devoted to an interview with Kerry and his wife Theresa, with Dr. Phil's wife Robyn. Dr. Phil summed up with strong praise that "when it comes to families, John Kerry gets it." My sister who watches Dr. Phil every day, and was leaning toward Bush, now leans toward Kerry. It's these small moments of truth that threaten to "chip away" at the web of lies promulgated by the Bushies.
Dan
As for video, I unfortunately clicked on a website with the full video of a terrorist beheading. I am still feeling sick, and I sure as hell won't vote for anybody who isn't 100% committed to hunting these guys down like dogs and treating them like they treat their victims. Weakness is not an option

and please, using Dr. Phil's opinions as evidence of Kerry's (or anybody's) credibility is laughable.
Rick
Didn't you watch the first debate? John Kerry said unequivocally he will hunt them down and kill them as a first priority, unlike Bush who let Bin Laden get away when he was cornered in Afghanistan.

Bush also ordered commanders to back off the Iraqui terrorist stronghold of Falluja, against the advice of the military.

As a political pundit, Dr. Phil may not be qualified, but he has a large daytime audience that worships him like a god. My sister also saw the Bush interview with Dr. Phil and thought he seemed stiff. She was swayed by the interview, and I hope many others were too.
Dan
QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 07, 11:46 AM)
Didn't you watch the first debate? John Kerry said unequivocally he will hunt them down and kill them as a first priority, unlike Bush who let Bin Laden get away when he was cornered in Afghanistan.

I'm not satisfied with only the claim of toughness. I hope you're right, though.

as for Afghanistan, are you saying that Bush intentionally undermined our capacity to capture Osama?


QUOTE

Bush also ordered commanders to back off the Iraqui terrorist stronghold of Falluja, against the advice of the military.

In chess, do you march every pawn directly at the king? I can assure you that Bush intends to beat these people, not to let them off the hook.


QUOTE

As a political pundit, Dr. Phil may not be qualified, but he has a large daytime audience that worships him like a god. My sister also saw the Bush interview with Dr. Phil and thought he seemed stiff. She was swayed by the interview, and I hope many others were too.

I guarantee that Dr. Phil's audience is overwhelmingly democrat. I doubt that he is going to change the vote significantly.
Rick
QUOTE (Dan @ Oct 07, 12:50 PM)
as for Afghanistan, are you saying that Bush intentionally undermined our capacity to capture Osama?

...I can assure you that Bush intends to beat these people [in Falluja], not to let them off the hook.

I guarantee that Dr. Phil's audience is overwhelmingly democrat. I doubt that he is going to change the vote significantly.

Yes, it was intentional, but probably unwittingly. He underestimated the difficulty of rooting him out, so he "oursourced" the job to Afghanistan warlords that had earlier fought against us, while diverting the American troops to the buildup for the invasion of Iraq. While Bush took his eye off the ball, Bin Laden slipped away. Nobody has any idea where he is right now, although administration officials say he is "probably" in Pakistan, and Pakistan isn't letting American troops go there. The Republican administration dropped the ball because they were so hot to get Saddam Hussein, who 1) had no weapons of mass destruction, and 2) had no ties to Al Qaeda. Stubbornness does not overcome incompetence. Kerry will get the job done.

How are you able to make any assurance to me about what Bush intends? With more killed in August than in July and more killed in September than in August, I don't think many claims about the situation can be credibly made.

Maybe majority Democrat. Certainly people who are interested in solving family problems will tend to be Democrats because Republicans seem more concerned about making money and war. But I don't think overwhelmingly Democrat. I don't have any statistics to counter your claim, but from walking precincts here and in Nevada and talking to people of all parties at their homes, I think Dr. Phil may be convincing a significant number of undecideds.
Dan
QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 07, 02:16 PM)
Yes, it was intentional, but probably unwittingly. He underestimated the difficulty of rooting him out, so he "oursourced" the job to Afghanistan warlords that had earlier fought against us, while diverting the American troops to the buildup for the invasion of Iraq. While Bush took his eye off the ball, Bin Laden slipped away. Nobody has any idea where he is right now, although administration officials say he is "probably" in Pakistan, and Pakistan isn't letting American troops go there. The Republican administration dropped the ball because they were so hot to get Saddam Hussein, who 1) had no weapons of mass destruction, and 2) had no ties to Al Qaeda. Stubbornness does not overcome incompetence. Kerry will get the job done.

'intentional' means that Bush was intending the result of not capturing Osama. What you are describing is a mistake, not intentionality. I certainly do not deny that Kerry could do a better job (I am not yet convinced, though), I am simply pointing out that the claims of Bush's intent to fail is a mischaracterization.


QUOTE

How are you able to make any assurance to me about what Bush intends? With more killed in August than in July and more killed in September than in August, I don't think many claims about the situation can be credibly made.

Rick, I never took you as one to get lost in the world of spin like this. I expect it from the t.v. pundits as they are trying to sway ignorant voters, but I had the high hope that you would be able to discuss this perhaps a little more 'dispassionately' with me instead of patronizing me. I think that it is absurd to say that Bush intends failure and death of Americans. It is much more reasonable to say that he is simply mistaken. To imply Bush as intending failure for America is nothing but spin, and I don't appreciate having spin in our conversation

(p.s. I added a 'spin zone' if you are interested in that game)
Dan
btw, I just rented Fahrenheit 9/11
should be fun to watch, right?
Rick
How about if I just say that Bush means well, but doesn't really know how to go about doing it? I never intended to imply that I think bush is anything but uncritical and misguided. However, a person can have some unhealthy subconscious motivations that we can never really understand for sure. The fundamentalist Christian influence is unhealthy in that many of them think that hastening the coming of the "last days" is a good thing. I'll check out your spin zone to see if it's a game I'm interested in.

You might enjoy Fahrenheit 911. I also recommend the three movies Unconstitutional, Uncovered, and Up River. I saw the latter movie, about Kerry's Vietnam and Vietnam Veterans Against the War experience, last night. It's very well done. I was in the Air Force at the time of Kerry's testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and wasn't following the news that closely then. I learned something.

I didn't mean to make you feel patronized. I apologize for my clumsiness.
Dan
QUOTE (Rick @ Oct 08, 11:39 AM)
However, a person can have some unhealthy subconscious motivations that we can never really understand for sure. The fundamentalist Christian influence is unhealthy in that many of them think that hastening the coming of the "last days" is a good thing.

The issue of how one makes decisions is certainly relevant. I understand tha Bush 'takes orders from God' which implies a lack of critical thought, but I don't think he is really trying to usher in the 'end days' either consciously or subconsciously.


QUOTE
You might enjoy Fahrenheit 911.

I did enjoy it. I saw much 'propaganda' in it, but it also made me feel that swaying sensation which I would like to believe is a consequence of truth. I recorded it onto VHS (I'm sure Moore would not prosecute) and plan on watching it again to get a clear grasp of the actual arguments and evidence presented instead of relying on the overall vague anti-Bush feeling for which it was created to induce.


QUOTE
I also recommend the three movies Unconstitutional, Uncovered, and Up River. I saw the latter movie, about Kerry's Vietnam and Vietnam Veterans Against the War experience, last night. It's very well done. I was in the Air Force at the time of Kerry's testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and wasn't following the news that closely then. I learned something.


where can I find these films?


QUOTE
I didn't mean to make you feel patronized. I apologize for my clumsiness.

I understand your emotions are strong about this stuff, and as such it makes sense that you would get caught up in the spin of it all. I'm just saying that I am capable of comprehending reasonable arguments, and I would like to avoid devolution into the logical fallacies that characterize propaganda and spin and the associated lack of honest communication.
Rick
QUOTE (Dan @ Oct 08, 02:03 PM)
where can I find these films?

Unconstitutional--The war on our civil liberties.

Uncovered--The whole truth about the Iraq war.

Going Upriver--The long war of John Kerry.
Dan
found these on NetFlix, which is a bit cheaper.

Uncovered - 2004 updated version
Going Upriver



Rick
I have DVD copies of Fahrenheit 911 and Uncoverd. I saw Unconstitutional and Upriver at a screening put on by the local Democratic club. Enjoy them.
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