Dear Reader, I do not know you, I could not guess your name, nor could I hope to assume what age you are. But I do know two things which are certain. #1 You are reading these words #2 You are hearing these words in your head as you read them...

Now this may seem like stating the obvious to you, however - what is seemingly obvious can often go unnoticed. So let me show you, how with meere words you will see a reality you have never known before.

There are two cards placed in front of you - ace of spades and 8 of diamonds

Which one do you choose?









I would guess you picked the...
Ace of Spades, unless you were purposely trying to pick the card to which you think most people would not pick.
The truth is, the majority of people will always pick ace of spades.

So whats my point? Well you have just learned something of tremendous value. You have learned something about human nature. Its predictable.

Few people realize just how valuable that really is. Human nature governs all the economies in the world, it governs whether people are guilty or innocent, whether something is true or false - it decides almost every aspect of society at its deepest core. The nice thing about this is - its predictable. I will give you an example, poker players, the really good ones - can tell you exactly what cards a player has based off of that persons own natural tendency to fall into a pattern, they can even make a pattern out of breaking a pattern.

To you, oh dear reader - this gives you a tremendous advantage. Since we know that all things governed by human nature have patterns, one only needs to recognize the pattern and predict the next course of action before it happens.

I can guarantee you, the stock market will go up and it will go down. The stock market is ruled by human nature, it is the buying and selling of companies between people. It is simply impossible for the market to continuously go up or continously go down. So the idea of buy low and sell high is very true indeed. Obviously some stock never go up again and just downright disappear. However, markets will always go up and down.

When does a market go down? When its stocks become too over valued by the market. The most basic indicator of when a market is going to go down... is when everybody is making money. When the guy who usually swears he'll never buy another stock is making a fortune in the market.. RUN!

When the people who have never invested in their lives start pulling in ridiculous returns and everyone is getting into the market - thats when it peaks... as soon as the general public starts getting involved in the market, that's when the bubble is ready to burst. In order for stocks to continue to rise, there needs to be a constant incoming supply of cash. When the general public starts investing, that cashflow is near it's limits. Which means, when people stop buying (because they have no more money), stocks wont go up. When stocks dont go up, people panic and sell. Then the stocks go down, which is when the market crashes.

Simple, yet most people buy stocks when the market is peaking, which is the worst time to buy. Not only are the stocks over priced but also, its ready for a correction (means the prices are going to drop in order to return to a price which is a more accurate valuation of a stocks real value).

So if human nature falls into patterns and the entire world economy is based off of human nature then... you can make a fortune! Like it or not, peoples behaviors are quite predictable. People in general are not spontaneous, they have habits and patterns. They have buying and selling patterns too.

Do you wanna know where a compulsive gambler is on payday? I will give you one guess...

The first thought that came into your head was a casino now wasn't it? Well you would be right and the thing is... I just predicted what your answer would be to the question I just asked and I was right now wasn't I?

Sounds like a rather common sense, obvious answer now doesn't it? Well ask a physics graduate if anything can go faster than light.. and his answer will be...

NO

Kinda fun though hu? Being able to know what people will say before they say it... makes you wonder now dont it? How free is your thinking really? If I know what your going to think and say before you think it or say it... are you free? or are you falling into a nice little pattern of action and reaction that I can predict... ;D

Now stick with me here because I have even more valuable information for you ahead.

Know a persons perception and you will know their action.

You will notice something, look back up two sentences, you will see that I said valuable information, this changed your perception of what was coming ahead in the following text. Your mind will place more emphasis on it and it will have a greater likelihood of being retained in your memory - because of the emphasis placed upon it.

Now I know I know some people (but not all) will say, Oh but you didn't really change my perception or otherwise known as blah blah blah boohoo. All lies.

For those of you smart enough to deduce, the reason why certain people will say this is because they are defensive about the concept of free will and a notion contrary to that, puts their ego at risk. Therefore they will try very hard to convince themselves of otherwise.

They want to believe they are making free, independent choices but the mind doesn't work that way, mainly because it learns and makes assumptions based off of prior experiences. Ive seen too many studies and far too much evidence to the contrary to be fooled into believing you are "special". That you are different from everyone else and somehow immune to being predicted or having your perception changed.

Its a scary concept I know, so perhaps before leaving you dazed about your inability to make free choices... maybe.. just maybe... I should give you the solution to free will?

Or maybe not.

Kind of sucks doesnt it? Having me leave you hanging, after showing you that your freewill isn't all it's cracked up to be... then not telling you how to gain that freewill?

If you want to know the answer, your going to have to ask the question.

Excellent post Max. I am actually a pretty good poker player, I'm up $700 from tournaments this week and I know exactly what you mean by knowing other peoples perceptions.

When you first start a game, its good to come across as someone who is aggressive, or sometimes its good to come across as someone who is meek. These are both valid ways to play, but the ONLY become valuable plays when you conciously remember how the other people see you at the table. Sometimes its worth coming across as a donkey, so a later hand can be more profitable.

Its also important to never fall into predicatable patterns. Betting or raising 600 everytime you have a pair of pocket kings is a sure way to reduce how much money you can make from them. Usually betting 2/3rds of the time and calling the other 1/3rd is enough to stop any patterns being detectable.

Other ways predicting behaviour is useful is in trapping opponents. If you know a person will always bet when the first 3 of 5 community (shared) cards appear, let them do it. Let them think they're forcing you out when you really have the best hand. Other peoples egos respond better to you betting at them as if your trying to buy the hand. This then initiates a "Thats mine!" response and they put all their money in the middle. Knowing a persons patterns is very profitable...

As for the question, I don't want to know your answer. I'm free to make up my own That kinda sucks now doesn't it

If you expect your dear reader to take this advice, it implies that you believe your dear reader has free will. But I suppose you know that the average reader won't and that's why the advice is good. One of the problems with the free will problem is that some people are free-er than others. The one in a hundred who consistently make money in the stock market, for example.

If all the players at the poker table are predictable, what is it that sets that one winner apart if it's not having a little more freedom (to observe or interpret or predict)?

It makes sense to repeat what works (hence, habits) but it also makes sense to innovate and try new things. Some might say that the winners in the markets and games are merely more intelligent or apply themselves better or are more observant, etc. Those things may be true too, so it can be argued that intelligent application of free will is an adaptive trait that nature may be selecting for.

I have my habits, of course, so I am somewhat predictable, but it is that one in a hundred creative act that could not be forseen that is human and lets me know that I am, at least to some extent, free. Demonstration of any freedom at all is a refutation of the non-free will hypothesis.

Well observation, patience, aggression and good memory of previous rounds of betting are some of the things required for a good poker player. Any donkey can play poker with good cards, its slugging it out in the trenches successfully that make a great player. I've not won a tournament yet that didnt have a good helping of luck, either to avoid really strong hands, or catching the correct cards when you do make the odd mistake. Being able to go with the ebb and flow of the table is also important, which is basically spotting the invisible but ever present threads of causality.

I'm not interested in current affairs enough to make the stock market profitable, but I've often thought I could apply myself and be moderately successful there. Money is only a necessity to me, not an aim by any means.

Sometimes, its all about the cards though

All very good points Rick. I'm not saying free will is non-existent, although it could certainly of come across as that. What I am saying is that certain aspects of human nature are not governed by free will but by automatic response mechanisms.

One could perhaps consciously try to overcome such things but it can be debatable.

All human attempts at self-improvement are examples of free will in action (unless self-improvement becomes a habit, of course, but then the person could consciously become more creative in his pursuit of perfection).

Well much of the reasoning behind my original post was to make people more aware of their habits and tendency to build preconceived notions. In truth I was trying to make people more aware of how predictable they can become because they are not even aware it is happening.

It causes one to think automatically rather than consciously considering logical possibilities.

I suppose the dimension of habitual thinking versus creativity and open mindedness is kind of like the difference between political conservatives and liberals. Are liberals more free? I think we are.

Agreed. BTW, to another new poster in another forum I wrote the following. Readers here will recognize it as a summary of the theology/philosophy I have written abaout here.

ABOUT THE FREEDOM IMPLICIT IN PANENTHEISM/UNITHEISM
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Like the process philosophy and theology written about by Alfred North Whitehead, unitheism presents a concept of God, not as a personal or objective super being, out or up there, separate and apart from creation and us, who gives commands from on high. Unitheism is rooted in the concept of univcersal freedom.

Because of this, I prefer to write the divine name as GØD--representing the moral goodness (peace and justice), the mathematical order and the artistic design in the midst of chaos, GØD is that which is in, through and around all that is--what we call the cosmos.

By the way, in my opinion--I always avoid using dogma--we are free to choose to work with GØD and towards more and more freedom; or with our egos and remain trapped, separate from GØD, in the illusion of materialism--held in the limitations of hell. Interestingly, the root meaning of the term 'devil' (diabolos, diable, diabolic) is that which divides us from the true and free self.

WE ARE FREE TO BE
As doublets for GØD I like to use Spirit and Love. When we choose to live by the knowledge and the power of this Love, this Spirit, we become freer and freer as we work to bring more and more order out of chaos in the beautiful and eternal journey living in the ultimate freedom we call Heaven. I like to think of Heaven, not a destination or as a resting place. Instead of looking forward to resting in peace, I prefer to work in the freedom of having all the knowledge, wisdom and power I need.
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I like the follwoing quote, which i may have wrong:
"Humans are not robots, but given half the chance they will behave like them"

Yep. Wouldn't it be ironic if someday we build robots that are more creative than humans? Then the robots could slander each other by saying "you're acting like a human."

Would they be "spitting images"? See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spitting_Image For those who like words and word games: http://www.worldwidewords.org/qa/qa-spi1.htm