Today is May 12, 2006. In order to make predictions about the future, one needs to make some assumptions. In the interests of speculation, I make the following assumptions:

1. The Democratic Party will win back control of the House of Representatives in the 2006 November election. This may be a bit optimistic, but it's possible if Americans continue to express their fed-upedness with the Republican program.

2. The Congressional support for the war will therefore diminish accordingly and American troop levels will decline to about half of the current level. Coalition partner troop withdrawls will then accelerate.

Prediction:

The President will get the message that he has ruined Republican chances to retain the Presidency in 2008, and in an effort of too little too late will not only respond to the Iranian President's letter, but will actually meet with him.

Acting like a diplomat for a while won't be sufficient for Bush, and the Democrats will not only win the Presidency back in 2008, but also the Senate.

By then, the Kurds in the north of Iraq will have already split off a new Kurdistan. Who will stop them? So the stage will be set for full US withdrawl from Iraq. Naturally, chaos will ensue and who will step into the resulting power vacuum?

Iran and Syria, of course! Iran will be welcomed by the Shiites in southern Iraq to restore order, and Syria will take control of western and central Iraq, with the blessing of the Sunnis. Iraq will have effectively ceased to exist, leaving only a greater Syria, Iran, and a new (somewhat) free Kurdistan.

Interesting, I am thinking that Democracy in Iraq turns to crap and The US is left without probable cause for the Iraq war